Why 2025 Will Be A Year to Remember
Trump’s Gonna Make It Happen
Will Donald Trump keep his campaign promises to fix our problems (many of them on day one)?
32% of all eligible voters who showed up and voted in the 2024 election think so. They hope he focuses on 4 main problems: 1. the economy, 2. illegal immigration, 3. healthcare, 4. and America’s endless wars.
I’m making this post to remember what Trump supporters said they wanted, and to help track his progress in delivering on these promises.
Fix the economy so we can afford to live
Many Americans can't afford eggs so they voted for the man who will “fix the economy”. On the campaign trail, Trump said once he’s president prices are going to drop.
I can’t wait for cheaper eggs. (See the bottom of this post on how to track historical prices of things to fairly compare them. We want to be fair when we compare them again in 2026 or 2028.)
Secure our borders and cities and make us safe
Trump has promised to deport 11 million undocumented immigrants and he’ll start on day one.
I doubt this will solve any problems and will introduce plenty of others. I, personally, won’t enjoy watching jackbooted thugs tearing families and communities apart. And I suspect the billions of dollars they contribute to the federal and local economies will be missed.
For the record, statistically, undocumented immigrants don’t commit a significant number of crimes.
Fix healthcare so we can all be healthy again (and not go bankrupt)
Donald Trump has promised to make America healthy again. This is welcome news.
Fortunately, Donald Trump will task RFK Jr, a doctor, scientist, academic politician, to improve our overall health:
I’m sure we’ll all be amazed by his performance. I like that he wants to ban unhealthy additives that are already banned in Europe, but can we keep vaccines?
Trump Will End Wars
Trump said, “I’m going to stop the wars”. This should be easy to track.
Referring to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Trump has said he’ll end it in 24 hours after taking office. He has said he’ll solve the Israel-Hamas conflict as well. Very reassuring.
To demonstrate how serious he is, he promised to start another war to end the Israel-Hamas conflict if Hamas doesn’t behave. Just yesterday, January 8, 2025, Trump said about the remaining hostages held by Hamas and related groups, “...if they’re not back by the time I get into office…all Hell will break out.”
In Conclusion
None of that will happen.
Most people who voted for Donald Trump won’t enjoy better incomes or decreased costs during this presidency. I have no idea if they’ll recognize this.
Backpedaling has already begun. On the campaign trail, Trump said prices would start to drop once he was elected. Now he’s saying “it’s very hard” for prices to come down.
He said he’d stop all wars, but now he’s threatening to annex Canada, take back the Panama Canal, and buy Greenland. That sounds like saber rattling, not the warm coos from a peace-loving dove.
Trump has a record of not delivering on campaign promises. Mexico didn’t pay for a wall (that was never completed). He failed to pass a trillion-dollar infrastructure bill the first time. To his credit, he did pass a $173B law to improve water infrastructure. He didn’t replace the Affordable Care Act (fortunately!). His notable accomplishment, the tax cut, worsened the deficit and widened the wealth gap.
Trump sues, not solve problems. He doesn’t collaborate or partner, he bullies. Anyone with any experience working with teams of people knows this approach rarely works—and it never aligns or unites people.
The coming data will document this sad chapter in American and world history. I’m hoping next time Democrats get into power, they push for significant, fundamental changes, not incremental fixes. I’m dreaming about universal health care and subsidized lifelong training and education.
The Data
Just for sheets and gaggles, I will be tracking KPIs over the next four years to be more impartial when judging DJT’s performance. I’ll use these recent numbers as a baseline. The year is 2024 unless otherwise noted.
2024 Average Cost of Childcare per Year: 24% of household income
30-year Fixed Rate Mortgage Rate: 6.85%
2024 Average American Debt Payments: 11.5% of income (monthly)
The homeownership rate in the U.S. as of the second quarter of 2024 is 65.6%.
Insurance Coverage: 26 million Americans, or 8 percent of the U.S. population, lacked health insurance in 2023.
I’d be very happy if I were completely wrong and DJT turned out to be the very bestest of US presidents and made America fairer than it has ever been.
FWIW: Tracking the Price of Eggs Overtime
Comparing the price of eggs from different years requires some digging and some math. You have to account for inflation and the overall cost of relevant goods. To do a very thorough job, you need to also consider extenuating factors, like a bird flu pandemic.
Thus, it’s easier to outsource this to ChatGPT 4o:
“To assess the change in egg prices between 2021 and 2024, it’s essential to consider both nominal prices and inflation-adjusted values. Here’s a detailed analysis:
Nominal Price Comparison
• 2021: The average price for a dozen Grade A large eggs was approximately $2.09.
• 2024: The average price increased to about $3.65 per dozen.
This represents a nominal increase of $1.56 per dozen, or approximately 74.6%.
Inflation Adjustment
To determine the real price change, we adjust the 2021 price to 2024 dollars using the Consumer Price Index (CPI):
• CPI in 2021: Approximately 270.97.
• CPI in 2024: Approximately 316.44.
Inflation Adjustment Formula:
Adjusted Price = Nominal Price * (CPI in 2024 / CPI in 2021)
Plugging in the values:
Adjusted Price= $2.09 * (316.44/270.97) equals approximately $2.44
Real Price Increase
• 2021 Price Adjusted to 2024 Dollars: Approximately $2.44
• 2024 Nominal Price: $3.65
This indicates a real price increase of about $1.21 per dozen, or approximately 49.6%, after accounting for inflation.
Factors Contributing to the Increase
Several factors have influenced this significant rise in egg prices:
• Avian Influenza Outbreaks: The ongoing bird flu epidemic has led to substantial reductions in egg-laying flocks, decreasing supply and driving up prices.
• Supply Chain Disruptions: Challenges such as increased feed costs, labor shortages, and transportation issues have further strained egg production and distribution.
• Increased Demand: Shifts in consumer behavior, including higher demand for eggs during the COVID-19 pandemic, have exacerbated price pressures.
Conclusion
Between 2021 and 2024, the price of eggs experienced a substantial increase, both in nominal and real terms. Even after adjusting for inflation, consumers are paying significantly more for a dozen eggs in 2024 compared to 2021. This rise can be attributed to a combination of supply-side challenges and heightened demand.
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Great post. I appreciate your optimistic skepticism! As well as your reliance on actual data. I’ll be interested to watch those numbers too. I think the goalposts will keep moving so it’s reassuring to keep the facts straight, if only to keep from being gaslighted. Hanging in there with you!