Are Chatbots in 2024 the Cellphones of 1995?

eGlaciers transform a landscape in decades, not milennia

Tldr;

This post, I hope, will illustrate a point to my kids. A feature, not a bug, of modern life is that game-changing paradigm shifts are continually underway. When I was a kid, no one had a personal phone they carried everywhere. Today, my iPhone is never far away. Another profound shift that’s underway and leveling existing structures invisibly is shaped like a friendly chatbot.

In the mid-1990s, I was the first in my social circle to get a mobile phone. My girlfriend laughed at me. “Are you a doctor?” she teased. “Who needs a phone all the time?” She didn’t believe me when I said, “One day, everyone will have a cell phone!” You knew after having such a phone for only a week how useful it was. Remember how embarrassed your last Crackberry friend was the day after he switched to an iPhone?

I get it. Naysayers are right often enough. 3D TV? The Segway? Google Glass…we’ll see that one again. Not all super-hyped products or technologies go the way of the phone, but those that do change how we live and work.

In 2024, 97% of American adults have a mobile phone and 90% of those are smartphones. We use our phones four or more hours a day and interact with them hundreds, if not thousands, of times, according to Google’s Search Lab AI, and my own experience. In the 1990s, we didn’t know mobile phones would become our everything device and primary interface with family, work, and friends. Today, it’s hard to imagine any other outcome.  

An even more profound change is happening with AI. My bet is that AI will have as big or bigger effect on our personal and professional lives than the smartphone revolution because it’s so flexible and can be used in so many applications.

Until you use it, you don’t know

Unless you’ve used AI to save time, you’ll probably dismiss it as hype. Once you start relying on it, however, and see how others are using it, you’ll quickly change your opinion.

I use several AI-powered tools daily. My primary chatbot today is OpenAI’s ChatGPT 4o. It supports spoken conversations, so I can talk with it in English and bad Japanese and get actionable information. This latest model is so capable that I can have it perform tasks in seconds that would take my ADHD brain hours to complete. Here are just a few ways I’m using AI these days:

I noted the tool in parentheses when it was not ChatGPT.

Recently I discovered I could play games with ChatGPT 4o, like 20 Questions and Trivia. You can even ask it to role-play as a historical figure. I just interviewed second President John Adams, and the King of Rock, Elvis Presley.

Commercially, the industry is only in its infancy. Change is coming quickly. 

Predictions: In 10, no, 5 years…

I use AI tools as standalone apps that aren’t connected to other apps or data sources. This will change quickly. In a few years (or months), the Googles of the world will provide suites of AI-powered apps and agents that are connected to each other, your appliances, and the world. Such agents will become more effective the longer they work with a given user (or family) thus reducing the likelihood you ever switch to a different provider.

I won’t be surprised when in the next 5-10 years AI-powered agents either replace or augment experts I pay for today to provide such services as:

• Triage Doc: “That’s not a mole. I’m making a doctor’s appointment right now. “

• Concierge: Your AI agent will send updates like: “Per your preferences, I used your points to book a well-reviewed hotel close to your conference and booked a spa morning on your day off. Let me know if I should cancel.”

• Personal Trainer: “Hey, you’ve gained 5 pounds since Tuesday. Shall I remove the Twinkies from the shopping cart?”

• Financial Planner: “You’re long in some real suckers. Why don’t we reconsider the portfolio? I’ll prepare recommendations and schedule a meeting with the team.”

• In-house Vet: “Spot needs a walk. He’s super anxious. And I’ve added Glandex to your cart. That boot-scooting is out of control.”

• Home Security: “I noticed someone loitering on the lawn today staring at your packages. Since there have been reports of package thefts recently, I’ve contacted neighbors and the authorities.” 

• Family Historian: Organize all your personal media (photos, videos, posts, likes, etc) into family histories. No one will ever need to say, “I wish we had asked Grandma more questions before she passed.”

In 20 years, I’m pretty sure your AI agent will be part of your family and will become the stable foundation or thread that unites all future generations. “Can you assume the role of Great Grandpa Paul so we can ask about his time in Kenya?” “Hibari gani, my great great grandkids!”

It’s only sci-fi until it is true

Remember the communicators in 1969 Star Trek? They look a lot like 1990’s cell phones. The notion that AI will seamlessly flow in and between our personal and professional lives isn’t science fiction; it’ll be expected and required.

I’m optimistic. Disruption brings opportunities. If you’re paying attention and constantly learning, you’ll see the signs. I got my first PowerBook laptop in 1993 when I was living in Japan so I could email friends back home. A few years later, I parlayed my English degree and budding computer skills into my first high-tech job as a tech writer. My kids are much smarter than me and with the help of their family AI assistant, I trust they’ll ride on top of whatever wave shapes our future 20 years from now.